Abstract
The interference of climate circulation and continuous rising of surface temperature every year has caused the atmosphere composition change which gives serious impact to water resource management. Pahang is among of the affected states by El Nino that hit Malaysia in recent years which led to water depletion at several water plants. Based on the current situation, this study focuses on 1) simulate the average rain pattern using statistical downscaling; 2) identify the severity index and dry duration occurrence in the catchment area. Predicting potential changes in the climate events is important to evaluate the level of climate change in the critical region. Therefore, the integration of Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) and Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) have been conducted to study the potential occurrence of the dry period due to climate change for year 2020s and year 2050s. The results reveal that the dry condition is high during the mid-year. The lowest SPI value is estimated to reach -2.2 which can be classified as extreme. The potential dry period is expected to increase 2.5% and 3.3% in 2020 and 2050, respectively.
Highlights
Nowadays, climate change has become the important issue due to its impact on the ecosystem, water resources, environment and human life [1]
Where t is time [days], Wt is the conditional possibility of rain occurrence on day t, ȗt(tjj) is the normalized predictor, αj is the regression parameter deduced by an ordinary least square method, and Wt-1 and αt-1 are the conditional probabilities of rain occurrence on day t-1 and lag-1 day regression parameter, respectively based on the studied region and predictand
The estimated value of rainfall on each rainy day is determined. This can be represented with a z score: ZZtt = ββ0 + ∑njjn=1 ββjjûut(tjj) + ββtt−1 + εε where, Zt is the z-score on day t, βj is the calculated regression parameter, and βt-1 and are Zt-1 are the regression parameter and the z-score on day t-1, respectively
Summary
Climate change has become the important issue due to its impact on the ecosystem, water resources, environment and human life [1]. In the 20th century, the temperature is expected to increase more than 2°C in the tropical and temperate regions and more than 4°C globally. Dry basis is the long term dry conditions with low moisture content which the studies indicate that the information of rainfall and temperature changes. This steps using statistical downscaling model (SDSM) described by Z.Hassan et al [14] which defined the rainfall occurs on each day or not as shown below: WWtt =∝0+ ∑njjn=1 ∝tt−1 ûut(tjj) + ∝tt−1 wwtt−1 (1). The estimated value of rainfall on each rainy day is determined This can be represented with a z score: ZZtt = ββ0 + ∑njjn=1 ββjjûut(tjj) + ββtt−1 + εε (2).
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