Abstract
In this study, the Distributed Catchment-Scale Model, DiCaSM, was used to study the impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Eden catchment, north east of Scotland. As a first step, the model was successfully calibrated and validated for a 42 years period. The DiCaSM model was then used to study the impact of climate change on the water availability. Data from the UKCP09 Climate change scenarios for the 2010–2039, 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, considering three gas emission scenarios (low, medium and high), were applied. The results indicated that the greatest decrease in streamflow and groundwater recharge was projected to happen under the high emission scenarios towards the end of the century, i.e. between 2070 and 2099. This would mainly be due to the summers becoming drier. Meanwhile, the projected increase in winter precipitation did not contribute much towards groundwater recharge due the projected increases in evapotranspiration and soil moisture deficit.The following drought indices were calculated and were found to be effective in predicting different types of droughts: the Standardized Precipitation Index, SPI, and the Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index, SPEI, the Reconnaissance Drought Index, RDI, the modified adjusted RDI, the Soil Moisture Deficit, SMD and the Wetness Index, WI. The findings of the study have broader implications in water resources management considering the future changes in climate.
Highlights
Scotland is perceived to be a country with an abundance of precipitation and ample water resources
While this would suggest there should be no issue with water supply in Scotland, Hulme (2002) noticed the rain was unevenly distributed, with the east of the country only receiving half of the precipitation received in the west
The results of the standardized precipitation index, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) clearly indicated significantly negative deviation from average precipitation in the 1970s, which is well supported by other drought indices like Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), soil moisture deficit (SMD) and the wetness index (WI) for the drought period of 1975–1976
Summary
Scotland is perceived to be a country with an abundance of precipitation and ample water resources. In 2006, the average precipitation in Scotland was found to be in excess of 1400 mm per year, making the country the third wettest in Europe, after Switzerland and Norway (Barnett et al, 2006) While this would suggest there should be no issue with water supply in Scotland, Hulme (2002) noticed the rain was unevenly distributed, with the east of the country only receiving half of the precipitation received in the west. This implies that, especially during the summer months, water supply in eastern Scotland might be at risk.
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