Assessment of the potential future market in Sweden for hydrogen as an energy carrier

Abstract

This study was performed as a Swedish contribution to the program of the International Energy Agency (IEA) concerning research and development on the production of hydrogen from water. A common framework of the joint IEA-group was applied throughout the work. A survey of the study is given in the report. The study projects future hydrogen markets during the period 1980–2025 in the investigated sectors, estimates the probable range of hydrogen production costs for various manufacturing methods, and evaluates the expected market shares in competition with alternative energy carriers. A general scenario for the economic and industrial development in Sweden during the period was evaluated. The average increase in gross national product was assumed to become 1.6% per year and equal over all society sectors except for residential housing construction and the total energy supply, which are assumed to increase with 0.81 and 0.90% per year, respectively. Three different energy scenarios based on the economic scenario were developed with the following characteristics: an alternative based on nuclear energy; an alternative based on renewable indigenous energy sources; and an alternative based on the present energy picture with free access to imported natural or synthetic fuels. Within each of the three scenarios, an analysis was made of the competitiveness of hydrogen on both the demand and the supply sides of the agreed sectors: chemical industry; steel industry; peak power production; residential and commercial heating; and transportation. Costs were calculated for the production, storage and transmission of hydrogen according to technically feasible methods and were compared to those of alternative energy carriers. Health, environmental and societal implications were also taken into consideration. The results have been used to estimate the market penetration of hydrogen in the regarded sectors.