Assessment of the potential enhancement of rural food security in Mexico using decision tree land use classification on medium resolution satellite imagery

Abstract

Because of its renewed importance in international agendas, food security in sub-tropical countries has been the object of studies at different scales, although the spatial components of food security are still largely undocumented. Among other aspects, food security can be assessed using a food selfsufficiency index. We propose a spatial representation of this assessment in the densely populated rural area of the Huasteca Poblana, Mexico, where there is a known tendency towards the loss of selfsufficiency of basic grains. The main agricultural systems in this area are the traditional milpa (a multicrop practice with maize as the main basic crop) system, coffee plantations and grazing land for bovine livestock. We estimate a potential additional milpa - based maize production by smallholders identifying the presence of extensive coffee and pasture systems in the production data of the agricultural census. The surface of extensive coffee plantations and pasture land were estimated using the detailed coffee agricultural census data, and a decision tree combining unsupervised and supervised spectral classification techniques of medium scale (Landsat) satellite imagery. We find that 30% of the territory would benefit more than 50% increment in food security and 13% could theoretically become maize self-sufficient from the conversion of extensive systems to the traditional multicrop milpa system.