Assessment of the performance of CMIP5 and CORDEX-SA models over the drought-prone Bundelkhand region, India

Abstract

Abstract The present study evaluates the reliability of the latest generation five best general circulation models (GCMs) under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and their corresponding regional climate models (RCMs) of Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) for the Bundelkhand region in central India. The study is performed on a microscale due to frequent drought events and more climate susceptibility in the study region. Observed daily precipitation data of 35 years (1971–2005) from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) have been chosen to check the performance of the models. Bilinear interpolation has been adopted to prepare all the data to obtain them on a common grid platform at a half-degree (0.5° × 0.5°) resolution. The data of the models have been bias-corrected using quantile mapping. Uncertainty of the models has been assessed using Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (r2) and a modified method known as skill score (SS). The study concluded that the bias-corrected GCMs played a better role than the CORDEX RCMs for the Bundelkhand region. Earth System Model, ESM-2M of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has shown better accuracy than all the CORDEX RCMs and their driving GCMs for the study region.