Abstract
Tunisia is a destination where organised mass tourism has prevailed since 1985. This trend is still being observed, despite the unstable geopolitical situation in North Africa. Current reports from booking portals indicate that this country will be one of the most popular tourist destinations in 2020. Therefore, the aim of the study was to determine the prospects for sustainable development in Tunisia in 2020–2025 as means to prevent the negative effects of overtourism. The research was conducted in three stages: (1) analysis of the phases of tourism development in Tunisia from 1960 to 2019 in relation to the Tourism Area Life Cycle concept, (2) identification of the destination’s evolution in 2015–2019 with the method of trend function exploration, and (3) an attempt to assess the risk of overtourism in Tunisia in light of Tourism Carrying Capacity on the basis of the Tourism Intensity Index and Tourism Density index. The study results revealed three phases of development in Tunisia, i.e. exploration, involvement, and development. The verification of the trend function indicated that Tunisia would enter the consolidation phase in 2020. The highest risk of overtourism is estimated for three governorates—Tunis, Sousse, and Monastir.
Highlights
Tunisia, which is regarded as a “3S” destination, has been one of the most popular destinations for years chosen by international tourists due to its diverse tourist offerings
The research was conducted in three stages: (1) analysis of the phases of tourism development in Tunisia from 1960 to 2019 in relation to the Tourism Area Life Cycle concept, (2) identification of the destination’s evolution in 2015–2019 with the method of trend function exploration, and (3) an attempt to assess the risk of overtourism in Tunisia in light of Tourism Carrying Capacity on the basis of the Tourism Intensity Index and Tourism Density index
Three phases of Tunisia development, i.e. exploration, involvement, and development, were identified from the curve constructed in accordance with the tourism area life cycle (TALC) model proposed by Butler [31] (Figure 3)
Summary
Tunisia, which is regarded as a “3S” destination, has been one of the most popular destinations for years chosen by international tourists due to its diverse tourist offerings. Tourism, like most types of economic activity, is associated with measurable profits and losses that should be assessed. As emphasised by Dodds and Butler [3], this is a new term for an old problem, i.e. the presence of an excessive number of tourists in a certain area, which may exert a negative impact on the place. The literature on this issue has been reviewed by Dodds and Butler [4], Milano et al [5] and Kruczek [6]
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