Assessment of the Leontiev productive matrix of the economic development model for Tyumen region (Russia)

Abstract

Relevance. Monitoring has always been an important part of the management of regional development. Recently, this task has been gaining currency due to the development of modern information technologies of data collection and processing, citizen-government interaction and digital modelling. The task of goal evaluation, that is, comparison of the actual results with the intended ones in different spheres, among other things, requires us to build and adjust the macro-economic model of regional development and in particular to update the input-output matrix based on the region’s statistical data. Research objective. The study aims to build a table of input-output balance for the south of Tyumen region (Russia) based on the statistical data of standardized economic indicators. Method and data. Two options for estimating the input-output matrix for Tyumen region are described. In the first option, a well-known method of adjustment of the reference input-output matrix for the priority economic sectors of Tyumen region is supplemented by the regularization of the resulting parameters according to the least squares method for the selected period. The second option is based on the aggregation of industries by subsystems based on the cost structure table of the same industries, but for the entire country, followed by the identification of the already aggregated matrix, without adjusting the result to the standard. Results. In the first option, we obtained a table of input-output balance for 2018. The table quite accurately reproduces the invoice structure of costs and consumption. The aggregated input-output matrix, taking regularization into account, reproduces the actual costs of the region for 2016-2018 with good approximation. In the second option, the distribution of the resulting direct costs coefficients over the years does not exceed 10%. Conclusions. The resulting estimates of the Leontiev input-output matrices meet the requirements of productivity and balance and can be used in benchmark problems for the analysis and forecasting of the economic development of Tyumen region. A variation of the functional scheme for assessing and analyzing the discrepancies between the declared and actual trajectories of the indicators based on the Leontiev matrix is proposed.