Assessment of the impacts of different policy instruments on achieving the deep decarbonization targets of island energy systems in Norway – The case of Hinnøya

Abstract

Norway enjoys an electricity-dominant clean energy system with a high share of hydropower. The power and heating sectors are characterized by high penetration of renewables. But the transportation and offshore industries remain challenging to be decarbonized; therefore, it needs more exploration on cost-effective energy transition strategies. This study develops a long-term energy planning model, TIMES-Hinnøya, for the Hinnøya island in Norway and couples it with a detailed electricity system model with hourly time resolution, EnergyPLAN, to overcome the low temporal resolution limitation of the long-term energy planning model. The two models run iteratively. Using the model, five scenarios are designed to investigate the effects of key policy instruments on the energy transition. These scenarios assume the continuation of current climate policies, such as carbon tax on fossil fuels, preferential policies towards purchasing and owning electric vehicles, ban on new internal combustion engine (ICT) cars as of 2025, and the potential incremental carbon tax rate. The results illustrate that although absolute reduction occurs in all the scenarios, the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050 can only be achieved by forbidding the sales of new ICE cars, highlighting the importance of zero-emission vehicles in the future transportation system.