Abstract
Surface water quality has been identified as potentially vulnerable to climate change. This study assesses the impacts of climate change on the water quality of Hsinshan Reservoir, Taiwan, through CE-QUAL-W2 simulations. The model parameters were calibrated by field data collected during 2004–2008, and verified against observations made during 2009–2012. The projected temperature and precipitation data for the near- and long-term future were downscaled to regional and daily scales, and used to simulate the projected changes in water quality through the validated model. The simulation results were reported as probability-based cumulative distribution functions to access the impacts of climate change on water quality. The results indicated that the intensified thermal stratification caused by the rising temperature is the primary driver of water quality decline, which increases the probability of deep-layer oxygen depletion and the flux of limiting nutrients for algae growth, resulting in a higher risk of algal blooms and eutrophication. The adaptation strategies of multilevel-intake operations and increasing bottom-layer dissolved oxygen without destratification are recommended.
Highlights
The warming of the global climate system is unequivocal and will continue to grow due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [1], which can induce a variety of changes in freshwater resources [2]
This study focused on Hsinshan Reservoir (HSR) and used the CE-QUAL-W2 model to study the impacts of climate change on risks to water quality under A1B and A2 scenarios for the near- (2020–2039) and long-term future (2080–2099)
The simulation results of hydrodynamic variables in HSR using W2 model, e.g., water level and temperature, showed lower errors (RMSE and absolute mean error (AME)) and much higher R2 values than the simulation of water quality parameters
Summary
The warming of the global climate system is unequivocal and will continue to grow due to increased anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions [1], which can induce a variety of changes in freshwater resources [2]. A warmer climate is generally projected to have adverse impacts on water quality and intensify many forms of water pollution [6,7,8]. Despite the fact that a number of studies have evaluated the impacts of climate change on the water quality of freshwater ecosystems [9,10,11,12], e.g., natural lakes and streams, limited information is available for man-made ecosystems, such as reservoirs. Like lakes and reservoirs, are especially sensitive to climate change [13], and many studies indicate that increases in water temperature are consistently associated with the increased thermal stratification of such water bodies. The duration of thermal stratification is projected to be prolonged in the Grafham
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