Abstract
Climate change due to the greenhouse effect will affect meteorological variables, which in turn will affect the demand for electrical energy and its generation in coming years. These impacts will become increasingly important in accordance with the increasing penetration of renewable, non-programmable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar). Specifically, the speed and amplitude of power system transformation will be different from one country to another according to many endogenous and exogenous factors. Based on a literature review, this paper focuses on the impact of climate change on the current, and future, Italian power system. The paper shows a wide range of results, due not just to the adopted climate change models used, but also to the models used to assess the impact of meteorological variables on electricity generation and demand. Analyzing and interpreting the reasons for such differences in the model results is crucial to perform more detailed numerical analyses on the adequacy and reliability of power systems. Concerning Italian future scenarios, the double impact of uncertainties in national policies and changes in power plant productivity and demand, has been considered and addressed.
Highlights
The world is facing enormous environmental issues
Based on a literature review, this paper focuses on the impact of climate change on the current, and future, Italian power system
The climate is the state of the climate system, which is a measure of relevant meteorological variables over a given period of time—which the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) sets at 30 years [2]
Summary
The world is facing enormous environmental issues. The rate of energy consumption that we are accustomed to has begun to stress the Earth’s resources and its ability to sustain our current lifestyle. A recent report showed how a +2 ◦C rise in temperature will impact Europe’s future electricity generation and demand, more significantly than a +1.5 ◦C increase [8] These changes will not be uniform throughout the globe: northern countries will experience a greater climate difference. Particular attention was paid to the models and forcing scenario used in the references analyzed, in addition to the magnitude and sign of the scatter between models, looking closely at the uncertainties within each model Such an analysis allows insights into the possible changes that the Italian electric power system (characterized by a high share of wind and PV capacity) needs to conduct, in order to maintain the power system adequately.
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