Abstract
In assessing the impact of climate change, the use of a multimodel ensemble (MME) is required to quantify uncertainties between scenarios and produce downscaled outlines for the simulation of climate under the influence of different factors including topography. This study of climate change scenarios from 13 global climate models (GCMs) assesses the impacts of future climate change. Unlike South Korea, North Korea lacks studies using climate change scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and only recently did the country start the projection of extreme precipitation episodes. As such, one of the main purposes of this study is to predict changes in the average climatic conditions of North Korea in the future. The result of comparing downscaled climate change scenarios with observation data for a reference period indicates the high applicability of the MME. Furthermore, this study classifies climatic zones by applying the Köppen–Geiger climatic zones classification to the MME, which is validated for future precipitation and temperature. The result suggests that the continental climate that covers the inland area for the reference climate is expected to shift into the temperate climate. Moreover, the coefficient of variation (CV) in the temperature ensemble is particularly low for the southern coast of the Korean Peninsula, and, accordingly, a high possibility of the shifting climatic zone of the coast is predicted.
Highlights
Climate change introduces subtropical vegetation as well as insect and fish species in Korea, with a rising interest in climatic zone classification and the subtropical climatic zone. e Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] expected that climate change would increase rainfall at 70°C or higher northern latitude and polar areas, with the subtropical climatic zone extending up to 30°C northern and southern latitude
An multimodel ensemble (MME) is required to quantify an uncertainty between a downscaled climate change scenario and a raw scenario to identify the shift of climatic zones in the future with the changing climate
Conclusion and Discussion is study aimed to assess the impacts of climate change on the shift of climatic zones over the Korean Peninsula
Summary
Climate change introduces subtropical vegetation as well as insect and fish species in Korea, with a rising interest in climatic zone classification and the subtropical climatic zone. e Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [1] expected that climate change would increase rainfall at 70°C or higher northern latitude and polar areas, with the subtropical climatic zone extending up to 30°C northern and southern latitude. E abnormal increase in temperatures nationwide shows that the country is becoming subtropical Such climatic zones can be classified with different criteria, but most of the related studies across the world refer to the classification proposed by [5,6,7] because of its simple calculation [8]. E past statistical downscaling assumed that the future climate has the same pattern of spatial/temporal distribution with the current one, so it does not follow the basic principle for climate change It can be useful for bias correction to past observations for quantitative comparisons and easy transition to high-resolution data. Uncertainties between scenarios should be considered because of their high variability For this reason, an increasing number of studies use the multimodel ensemble (MME), which predicts climate change by combining results from different models [19,20,21]. The fifth section summarizes the study and provides a conclusion
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