Assessment of the impact of government response measures on the spread of COVID-19: panel data evidence for 50 countries

Abstract

This article investigates the impact of Government’s response measures to new COVID-19 cases. This is proxied by a stringency index of 50 countries from April 2020 to March 2022. Our World in Data COVID-19 dataset was utilised employing several panel econometrics methods. This article fills a gap in empirical research by employing a range of econometric methods over an extended period and countries. The article provides the basis for the formulation and implementation of government response measures or policies to other major public health events that may occur in the future. The research found a positive association between Government’s response measures and new cases initially and in the long term and a significant short-term error correction component. This indicates an incremental and repeatable implementation approach, proposing a cyclical or lagged relationship where response measures reach a level of stringency after some time, then induce a decline in new cases. The timing, speed, and stringency of implementation of the government policy response measures are crucial in our understanding of the relationship or link between the government policy response measures and new COVID-19 cases.