Assessment of the impact of export diversification on economic growth in Morocco: Econometric application

Abstract

Resume Dans un contexte mondiale caracterise par l’instabilite et la fluctuation des recettes d’exportations, les taux de croissance economique enregistres recemment par le Royaume du Maroc mettent en question les dynamiques structurelles de l’economie marocaine. Une structure productive caracterisee essentiellement par une insuffisante diversification et un faible indice de sophistication des exportations. L’objectif principal de cet article est d’evaluer empiriquement l’impact de la diversification des exportations sur la croissance economique au Maroc a partir d’un modele autoregressive vectoriel (VAR). Les resultats de la presente etude montrent qu’une augmentation de 1% de la diversification des exportations marocaines influence positivement la croissance economique au Maroc de 0,27%. Au cours de cet article, nous avons presente, dans un premier temps, les outils de mesure de la diversification des exportations ainsi que notre approche methodologique, ce qui nous a permis, dans un deuxieme temps, d’analyser les resultats de notre etude econometrique. Mots cles : Economie, Structure, diversification, productivite, exportations, croissance Abstract In a global context marked by instability and fluctuating export revenues, the economic growth rates recorded recently by the Kingdom of Morocco call into question the structural dynamics of the Moroccan economy. The Moroccan productive structure is characterized mainly by insufficient diversification and a low index of export sophistication. The main objective of this paper is to empirically estimate the impact of export diversification on economic growth in Morocco using a vector auto regression model (VAR). The results of this study show that an increase in the diversification of Moroccan exports by 1% has a positive effect on economic growth in Morocco by 0.27%. In this paper, we first present the tools for measuring export diversification and our methodological approach, which allows us to analyze the results of our econometric study. Keywords: Economy, structure, diversification, productivity, exports, growth.