Assessment of the impact of biotic factors on the sustainability of forest ecosystems

Abstract

In the conditions of active development of the northern regions of Russia, the urgent task is not only strategic planning for the development of the resources of the north, but also a rational approach to the conservation of primary landscapes of ecosystems. Management of natural areas should be based on a risk-based approach that takes into account factors of biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic origin. The method of applying the Bayesian approach to assessing environmental risks is considered on the example of the forest ecosystem of the north of the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Graphical models of probability distribution take into account such elements of the system as the species composition of wood, the type of pest or disease of the forest as input data. An assessment of the probability of damage to forests showed that insect pests (Siberian silkworm, Ussuri polygraph) contribute to significant damage to forests. Economically valuable species of wood (larch, fir, cedar) are vulnerable to the impact of biotic factors. It is proposed to carry out sanitary felling as measures to prevent the death of the forest to strengthen control over the development of centers of biological threats.