Assessment of the Fragility of the Municipal Waste Sector in Serbia Using System Dynamics Modelling

Miloš Jovičić,Yury Klochkov,Goran B Bošković,Miladin Stefanović,Nebojša Jovičić,Ivan Mačužić,Marija Savković

doi:10.3390/su14020862

Miloš Jovičić, Yury Klochkov + Show 5 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/su14020862

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Abstract

This research develops a novel methodology for municipal waste management in Serbia, based on system dynamics modelling. The methodology shows how a country and relevant institutions should address complexities in the waste management sector. Waste management is a critical issue globally, which heavily impacts the economic development of a country, including the general quality of life within a society. The designed simulation generates different scenarios of the Serbian municipal waste system for reaching the 2035 recycling rate targets. Methodologies such as the theory of constraints, fragility analysis, and systems dynamics were implemented in the model. The scenarios and fragility modelling were conducted with the system dynamics modelling methodology in the Ventity simulation environment. The designed model has elements of discrete event simulations, system dynamics, and agent-based modelling. Importantly, real-world data for the period of five years (from the year 2016 to 2020) was used in the case study. This research undoubtedly reveals that the informal sector is the key source of fragility to the dynamic system considered. During the considered period, the informal sector contributed 62.3% of all separated waste to the system. Consequently, this research concludes that for the waste sector in Serbia to reach the 2035 EU goals, the existing practice in waste management has to be changed significantly and will benefit from the modelling approach used here. The whole system is highly dependent on the informal sector, which, in its current form, is volatile, unregulated, and fragile to aggressive regulative policies.

Highlights

The highest level of urgency for more decentralised municipal waste management is outlined in the first Global Waste Management Outlook report, published by the UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP) [1]
In the case of liquidation of informal sector entities by the state, public utility companies would need to compensate for the lost capacity swiftly
The main objective of the simulation was to predict the possibilities of achieving the recycling targets set by Directive (EU) 2018/851 of the European Parliament and the

Summary

Introduction

The highest level of urgency for more decentralised municipal waste management is outlined in the first Global Waste Management Outlook report, published by the UnitedNations Environment Programme (UNEP) [1]. Waste management should be seen from a government policy perspective as a priority for general quality of life in a developing urban environment [2]. Despite the clear global need for more growth on all levels in the waste management industry, a number of barriers prevent sustainable economic growth. Waste management companies typically operate at long-term low profitability in many economically troubled regions, including Eastern Europe [3] and countries in Africa [4]. Poor performance of waste management companies in developing countries can be attributed to relatively inadequate implementation of waste management policies and planning [5], along with the absence of good regulation [6] and a lack of infrastructure.

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