Assessment of the extinction risks of medicinal plants in Egypt under climate change by integrating species distribution models and IUCN Red List criteria

Abstract

The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species is one of the most important of all conservation indicators, but most developing countries do not have enough information with which to make assessments. The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict habitat suitability, both currently and in the future under the effects of climate change, offers a potential solution for estimating extinction risk. With a set of validated observations, we used SDMs to make preliminary evaluations of the risk of extinction for 114 Egyptian medicinal plants based on IUCN Red-List Criteria and Categories. Using MaxEnt and eleven environmental variables, distributions were projected for 2020, 2050, and 2080 under two emission scenarios (A2a and B2a) assuming unlimited and no dispersal. The IUCN assessments used the predicted distributions as well as the actual records to measure both extent of occurrence (EOO) and area of occupancy (AOO). There was a positive correlation between EOO estimates based on actual records and those based on SDMs, demonstrating the ability of SDMs to compensate for a lack of data. Most species could be classified as Least Concern (LC) at the current time, whilst in the future under climate change, many species face some risk of extinction, depending on assumptions. We conclude that it is possible to make regional risk assessments even in data-sparse countries, in order to plan conservation management in the future. Using species distribution modelling together with IUCN Red-List assessment is a good method for countries where data are sparse in order to conserve and protect threatened species.