Assessment of the Expected Change in Project Parameters in Terms of the Reliability of Soil Main Channels

Abstract

The purpose of the research was to determine the possibility of determining the absolute change, its distributive law and reliability interval of the project values during the construction and operation period for the relevant parameters of the operated soil main channels. In this regard, in the soil main channels with different engineering-geological and operational conditions selected as the research object, based on the comparison of the project value of the live sectional area, wetted perimeter, hydraulic radius and bottom slope with the value formed during operation, the absolute change in its functional parameter was applied. The level of dispersion of the parameters formed during the operation of the channels around the point values determined during the projecting, the reliability intervals covering them were evaluated according to the absolute change. The results of long-term field research were carried out using the probability theory and mathematical-statistics methods and the Excel program. It was tested by Pearson criterion that the relative frequency of the absolute change in the studied parameters of the channels obeys the normal distributive law. It was determined that the absolute change occurred with probability of reliability of 5,61 m2 < Δω < 5,89 m2 on the live sectional area, 5,97 m < Δχ < 6,22 m on the wetted perimeter, with reliability intervals of 0,00009 < ΔJ < 0,00017 on the bottom slope in the soil main channels and this change had an effect on the working capacity of the channels. During the projecting of the channels, taking into account the dispersion interval around the point values of the relevant parameters, it was considered important that it should be evaluated according to the reliability interval for the absolute change.