Assessment of the environmental effects of China's fertility policy: The impact from increasing numbers of children in households

Abstract

In the dual context of the pursuit of carbon neutrality and the continued relaxation of the fertility policy in China, this study uses a panel data of the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) from 2012 to 2018 to reveal the environmental performance brought about by the relaxation of the fertility policy. The article finds that an increase in the proportion of children in the household is accompanied by a decrease in the embodied carbon emissions (E-CO2) of the household, indicating the relaxation of the fertility policy is synergistic with the realization of the carbon neutrality. Furthermore, in terms of the influential mechanism, This paper confirms that the inhibitory effect of the rising proportion of children on E-CO2 is due to the constraint of lower household income. On the one hand, lower income expectations from raising more children make households consume less, which reduces household E-CO2. On the other hand, the negative effect of lower income on consumption is unevenly distributed to each category of consumption. Specifically, parents spend more on their children, such as increasing spending on education. However, the increase in education spending comes at the cost of a reduction in other aspects of consumption, which brings a more environmental-friendly consumption pattern. In addition, we find that having more children has a stronger effect on E-CO2 reductions for families in rural areas, families with only daughters and no sons and families with low-income. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on families in urban areas and with high-income to realize household E-CO2 reduction, thereby achieving carbon neutrality under the trend of larger families (more children). Specifically, the government should actively guide families to reduce non-essential and high‑carbon consumption and promote an environmentally friendly consumption structure.