Assessment of the Effectiveness of Mechanisms for Strengthening the State Sovereignty of Russia

Abstract

In this article, the authors present a quantitative assessment of the consequences of a number of government decisions aimed at achieving accelerated economic growth, namely: 1) diversifcation of the economy; 2) reduction of the differentiation of regions; 3) increase of social protection of the population; 4) stimulation of the domestic demand. The authors used for calculations the modifed model complex developed in CEMI RAS. The complex includes a set of Computable General Equilibrium models (CGE models) and Agent-Based Models (ABMs). The author’s calculations showed, as compared with other industries, that the increase in fnancing of the sectors of the new economy leads for 7 years to the growth of GDP by 4.45 percentage points in relation to the basic version of the economy. We also established that due to tax preferences and differentiated investment policy in relation to the “problem” regions, it is possible to equalize the level of development of the subjects of the Russian Federation. The authors conclude that the process of inter-regional smoothing is time-consuming and a signifcant effect is possible after fve years from the beginning of the implementation of the relevant mechanisms. The results of the calculations showed that the increase in benefts as a whole leads to GDP growth and has a positive impact on the economic system. We also concluded that the reduction of the refnancing rate leads to an increase in GDP and lower inflation. With the help of the model complex, we calculated the influence of a number of illegal fnancial transactions on the main macro indicators. Quantitative assessment was carried out in three scenarios: 1) withdrawal of budget funds; 2) tax evasion by individuals and legal entities; 3) withdrawal of fnancial assets abroad. The unrealized GDP growth potential for the six years compared to the initial period was 11.107, 21.323, and 31.976 percentage points for the three scenarios, respectively. The calculations also show that almost any cash infusion into the real sector of the economy leads to GDP growth due to signifcant demonetization of the Russian economy.