Assessment of the dynamics and structure of Russian foreign trade based on the use of elements of the methodology of expanded SWOT analysis

Abstract

In this work, the authors assessed the effectiveness of the main export-oriented sectors of the Russian economy based on the use of the methodology of expanded SWOT analysis. The following were selected as the studied industries: the oil and gas industry, chemical industry, agriculture, metallurgy, as well as mechanical engineering. The novelty of the presented approach is determined by the fact that, fi rstly, this kind of assessment was not previously carried out to evaluate the eff ectiveness of the Russian economy and their prospects in the foreign market. Secondly, the selected method of conducted research can be considered novelty-the use of elements of expanded SWOT analysis. Another aspect of the novelty became the factors selected by the authors of this study used during the analysis, which made it possible to consider the impact of sanctions on the industry analyzed in the work. It is worth noting that this work opens a series of studies in which a quantitative analysis of qualitative indicators conducted in various ways will be conducted and presented: based on use, in addition to expanded SWOT analysis, VAR and DSGE-modeling, which will further make a comparative analysis of the adequacy of the presented models and accuracy obtained based on the use of various economic and statistical methods and models. We also note that the analysis carried out in the work will highlight, including those industries whose exports are recommended to reduce by reorienting fl ows to the domestic market.