Abstract
The research used statistical analysis methods, compared, and simulated the MIKE model, predicted the risk of salinity intrusion according to the scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 to assess the current situation of salinity intrusion and its impact on Go Cong Dong district and Tan Phu Dong district. After conducting the study “Assessing of the current situation of salinity intrusion in Tan Phu Dong and Go Cong Dong districts of Tien Giang province and proposing solutions”, the researchers achieved the following results: the situation of salinity intrusion in both 2 districts became more complicated, salinity intrusion came early, high salinity encroached the fields. In 2020, salinity intrusion came 1 month early, the highest salinity level reached 25.4 g/l; Regarding the risk prediction of salinity intrusion: according to the scenarios of RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 through the periods of 2030, 2050, 2070, 2100, the salinity level in the studied area tends to increase gradually, the lowest salinity will be from 4 to 6 g/l, the salinity in the whole districts of Tan Phu Dong and Go Cong Dong will exceed 12 g/l in 2100. Regarding the assessment of the impacts of salinity intrusion to the main local industries including agriculture – forestry – fishery, the fields of land, water, and ecosystem resources, the agriculture and water resources sectors are most severely affected.
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