Assessment of the Colombian long-term energy planning scenarios for the national hydrocarbon value chain: Insights from the TIMES-O&G model

Abstract

Using energy system modeling tools has successfully contributed to energy planning for mid-century energy sector decarbonization goals at different levels, such as national, regional, and global scenarios. In this way, these tools provide scientific evidence to define long-term strategies per the objectives set, such as energy self-sufficiency, energy transition, and decarbonization, which includes each sector's actions. Hydrocarbons are one of the most studied sectors due to their relevance in the energy sector. However, more work needs to be reported on analyzing the implications of these actions and exploring what the role of this sector may be in the strategy of the country or region. This study models a conceptual company's oil and gas value chain at a country level, exploring its role in the long-term vision of Colombian energy strategy. We developed a TIMES-O&G model, tested on three scenarios based on Colombia's National Energy Plan. In the short and medium term, the possibility of adding new resources could indicate how quickly the Colombian hydrocarbon market will lose its self-sufficiency since by 2030 and 2040, imports of natural gas and crude oil will exceed national production, respectively, leading O&G company in Colombia would lose its role as a producer of hydrocarbons, and from 2040, its value chain would be limited to being an importer of raw materials for refining to meet the national fuel demand; the preceding would imply an increase in costs of 15 and 18% of the system for the upgrading and inflection scenarios concerning the base case scenario. Moreover, the refineries are identified as the primary sector that must be decarbonized in the short and long term, considering their importance in the value chain they represent.