Abstract
This paper presents a novel approach for estimating the vulnerability level of critical infrastructure confronting potential terrorist threats and assessing the usefulness of various protection strategies for critical infrastructure (CI). A methodology, utilizing a combination of topological network analysis and game theory, is presented to evaluate the effectiveness of protection strategies for certain components in the infrastructure under various attack scenarios. This paper focuses on protective strategies that are based on different attack scenarios as well as on the connectivity of the critical infrastructure components. The methodology proposed allows optimization of protection strategies in terms of investment in critical infrastructure protection in order to reduce expenditures on local infrastructure protection or on a single critical infrastructure for small projects. A case study of a power-supply substation is included to validate the analytical framework. The results indicate that the framework is highly applicable to other types of critical infrastructures facing similar threats. The results suggest that when only terrorist attacks are considered, improving the robustness of CI has a much higher effectiveness and efficiency than improving CI redundancy. The research methodology in this paper can be applied to a wide range of critical infrastructures and systems that may be at risk from manmade extreme events.
Highlights
The security of critical infrastructures (CIs)—“The framework of interdependent networks and systems comprising identifiable industries, institutions, and distribution capabilities that provide a reliable flow of products and services essential to the defense and economic security”, examples of which include power supply, transportation, communication, energy and water, governance infrastructures and more [1]—has been the subject of increased governmental attention due to the expanding threat of terrorism [2]
The novelty of the model focuses on integration between the vulnerability of the CIs using developed
The novelty of the model focuses on integration between the vulnerability of the CIs using topological network analysis, various threat scenarios, and comprehensive consequences considering topological network analysis, various threat scenarios, and comprehensive consequences considering direct and indirect loss
Summary
The security of critical infrastructures (CIs)—“The framework of interdependent networks and systems comprising identifiable industries, institutions (including people and procedures), and distribution capabilities that provide a reliable flow of products and services essential to the defense and economic security”, examples of which include power supply, transportation, communication, energy and water, governance infrastructures and more [1]—has been the subject of increased governmental attention due to the expanding threat of terrorism [2]. The collapse of the WTC caused the failure of the water-supply system beneath it, which resulted in serious flooding to nearby places and the flood-related loss of 200,000 voice lines, 100,000 private branch exchange lines and 4.4 million data circuits [3]. Apart from such major high-profile terrorist attacks, a large number of terrorist attacks against CIs occur in various countries, with great frequency and significant consequences. We present a case study of a power-supply substation in Israel that is under periodic attack, and determine the optimal protection strategy for it within various levels of budget limits
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