Assessment of T2 lesion-based disease activity volume outcomes in predicting disease progression in multiple sclerosis over 10 years

Abstract

BackgroundNew/enlarging T2 lesion count and T2-lesion volume (LV) are used as conventional secondary endpoints in clinical trials of patients with multiple sclerosis (PwMS). However, those outcomes may have several limitations, such as inability to account for heterogeneity of lesion formation/enlargement frequency and their dynamic volumetric behavior. Measurement of volume rather than count of new/enlarging lesions may be more representative outcome of dynamic changes over time. ObjectivesTo investigate whether new/enlarging T2-LV is more predictive of confirmed disability progression (CDP), compared to total T2-LV or new/enlarging T2 lesion count over long-term follow-up. MethodsWe studied 176 early relapsing-remitting PwMS who were followed with annual MRI examinations over 10 years. T2-LV, new/enlarging T2-LV, and new/enlarging lesion count were determined. Cumulative count/volumes were obtained. 10-year CDP was confirmed after 48-weeks. ANCOVA analysis detected MRI outcome differences in stable (n = 76) and CDP (n = 100) groups at different time points, after correction for multiple comparisons. ResultsPwMS with CDP had greater cumulative new/enlarging T2-LV at 4 years (p = 0.049), and enlarging T2-LV at 4- (p = 0.039) and 6-year follow-up (p = 0.032), compared to stable patients. PwMS with CDP did not differ from stable ones in new/enlarging T2 lesion count or total T2-LV at any of the study timepoints. PwMS with Expanded Disability Status Scale change >2.0 had significantly greater enlarging T2 lesion count (p = 0.01) and enlarging T2-LV (p = 0.038) over the 10-year follow-up. ConclusionEnlargement of T2 lesions is more strongly associated with long-term disability progression compared to other conventional T2 lesion-based outcomes.