Abstract

A new method is presented for assessment of compositional changes in disturbed savanna systems and for identification of species susceptible to local extinction. Such information is urgently needed as a basis for management plans that aim at ensuring conservation and sustainable use of savanna vegetation. Size class distributions (SCDs) of trees and shrubs from a fire-disturbed savanna in Senegal are analysed and compared to observations provided by local people on declining species. Many species, particularly large trees, have few young individuals and therefore flat SCDs that deviate from the reverse-J shape SCD characterizing species with abundant and constant rejuvenation. Based on comparisons of SCDs with local information and historical records, it is concluded that most of the flat distributions analysed are effects of declining population sizes caused by human impact, particularly fire. Results from the analyses certify that a change in species composition from a vegetation characterized by large trees to one dominated by shrubs takes place. Whereas most of the declining species are locally appreciated, this is not the case for the few species with good rejuvenation. Therefore, if the observed trend continues, it will have severe implications for the local communities.

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