Assessment of spatial cyclone surge susceptibility through GIS-based AHP multi-criteria analysis and frequency ratio: a case study from the Bangladesh coast

Abstract

Tropical cyclones, including surge inundation, are a common event in the coastal regions of Bangladesh. The surge washes out the area within a very short period and remains in flooded condition for several days. Spatial analysis to understand the surge susceptibility level can assist the cyclone management system. Surge susceptibility analysis could be one of the most essential parts of disaster risk reduction through which cyclone vulnerability can be minimized. A Geographic Information Systems-based analytical hierarchy process (AHP) multi-criteria analysis and bivariate frequency ratio (FR) techniques were conducted to understand the surge susceptibility level of a cyclone-prone area on the Bangladesh coast. A total of 10 criteria were considered influential to surge flooding, i.e. Topographic Wetness Index, elevation, wind velocity, slope, distance from sea and rivers, drainage density, Land Use and Land Cover, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, precipitation, and soil types. The final surge susceptibility maps were categorized into five classes, i.e. very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. Conferring to these susceptibility classes, policymakers can make decisions for future land use management and disaster risk reduction activities. According to this research, AHP showed better precision (Receiver Operating Characteristic) than FR for surge susceptibility prediction on the Bangladesh coast.