Assessment of soil loss susceptibility in geodetic landmarks for the past and future climate change scenarios

Abstract

Geodetic landmarks (GLs) are essential for obtaining precise height, horizontal coordinates, and the Earth's gravity field. This study aims to assess the soil susceptibility of GLs for past, present, and future scenarios, considering the projected anthropogenic effect from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Version 6 (CMIP6). Therefore, the soil loss estimations were made for all the GLs in the southern region of Santa Catarina state in Brazil using the Revised Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Our results showed average soil loss decreasing from 1985 to 2020. There was an increase in GLs in the null class (soil loss = 0 t/ha/year), mainly caused by urban growth. A decrease occurred in the low (0 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤10 t/ha/year), very severe (soil loss >200 t/ha/year), severe (50 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤200 t/ha/year), and moderate classes (10 t/ha/year < soil loss ≤50 t/ha/year). In addition, most future scenarios projected an increase in soil loss susceptibility, which also increased the GLs' susceptibility to soil loss from 2020 to 2100, albeit with lower values than the historical series. The soil loss remained stable in ssp126, slightly increased in ssp245 and ssp370, and increased in ssp585. The future scenarios only take into account changes in rainfall. Thus, the land cover change forecast would also be necessary for better analysis for future studies. Therefore, climate simulations can be used to understand the effects of climate change on soil erosion to support decision-making regarding GLs maintenance and the construction of new ones.