Abstract
The increased demand for bio based products worldwide provides an opportunity for Eastern European countries to increase their production in agriculture and forestry. At the same time, such economic development must be congruent with the European Union’s long-term climate and biodiversity objectives. As a country that is rich in bioresources, the Latvian case study is highly relevant to many other countries—especially those in Central and Eastern Europe—and faces a choice of transition pathways to meet both economic and environmental objectives. In order to assess the trade-offs between investments in the bioeconomy and the achievement of climate and biodiversity objectives, we used the Functional Land Management (FLM) framework for the quantification of the supply and demand for the primary productivity, carbon regulation and biodiversity functions. We related the supply of these three soil functions to combinations of land use and soil characteristics. The demand for the same functions were derived from European, national and regional policy objectives. Our results showed different spatial scales at which variation in demand and supply is manifested. High demand for biodiversity was associated with areas dominated by agricultural land at the local scale, while regional differences of unemployment rates and the target for GDP increases framed the demand for primary productivity. National demand for carbon regulation focused on areas dominated by forests on organic soils. We subsequently identified mismatches between the supply and demand for soil functions, and we selected spatial locations for specific land use changes and improvements in management practices to promote sustainable development of the bio-economy. Our results offer guidance to policy makers that will help them to form a national policy that will underpin management practices that are effective and tailored toward local climate conditions and national implementation pathways.
Highlights
The increasing demand for high-quality food and fiber and the simultaneous reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is a major global challenge
We identified relevant supply metrics for three soil functions that were in line with the following criteria: (1) Supply metrics must reflect the present situation in Latvia for each soil function; (2) Latvian datasets must be publicly available for each of the supply metrics; (3) Data are spatially available or could be integrated into available maps; (4) Supply metrics must be capable of showing regional differences in Latvia; (5) Supply metrics can be quantitatively linked to the indicators for the demand of soil functions in Latvia
Similar to Schulte et al (2015) and Pinillos et al (2020), the demand for carbon regulation is evenly spread at the national level, reflecting the absence of sector-specific targeting between the non-Emissions Trading System (ETS) sectors such as housing, agriculture, waste and transport (Figure 8)
Summary
The increasing demand for high-quality food and fiber and the simultaneous reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is a major global challenge. The European Union (EU) has set a target to cut its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels by 43% from the Emissions Trading System (ETS) sectors and 30% from the non-ETS sectors until 2030, compared to 2005 (EC, 2014). This overall target is distributed asymmetrically across Member States, depending on their economic development and the structure of their economy. Emission reductions are challenging for the bio-economy (i.e., the agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry sectors). Afforestation and wetland restoration reduce agricultural production while increasing carbon sequestration and storage, but may result in higher imports of food and feed (Eory et al, 2018)
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