Abstract
Floods are the most devastating hazards that have significant adverse impacts on people and their livelihoods. Their impacts can be reduced by investing on: 1) improving the forecasting skills of extreme and heavy rainfall events, 2) development of Impacts Based Flood Early Warning System (IBFEWS) and 3) effective communication of impacts from anticipated extreme or heavy rainfall event. The development of IBFEWS however, requires a complete understanding of factors that relates to the formation of extreme or heavy rainfall events and their associated socio-economic impacts. This information is crucial in the development of Impacts Based Flood Forecasting Models (IBFFMs). In this study, we assess the socio-economic impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam as the preliminary stage in the development of IBFFMs for the City of Dar es Salaam. Data from household survey collected using systematic random sampling techniques and structured questionnaires are used. The survey was conducted to acquire respondent’s views on the causes of floods impacts, adaptive capacity to extreme or heavy rainfall events and adaptation options to minimize flood impact. It is found that the main causes of floods were river overflow due to heavy rainfall and blocked drainage system. Poor infrastructure such as drainage and sewage systems, and ocean surge were identified to be the causes of observed impacts of the December 2011 flood event in Dar es Salaam. Death cases analysis showed that 43 people were reported dead. The flood event damaged properties worth of 7.5 million Tanzania shillings. Furthermore, the Tanzania Government spent a total amount of 1.83 billion Tanzanian shillings to rescue and relocate vulnerable communities that lived-in low-lying areas of Jagwani to high ground areas of Mabwepande in Kinondoni district.
Highlights
Floods are the most devastating hazards that have potential to cause damage to natural environment, displacement of people, destruction of infrastructure: buildings, roads, railways, bridges and power transmission lines [1]-[6]
Heavy rainfall events over northeastern part of Tanzania, over the city of Dar es Salaam during October, November, December (OND) seasons are influenced by strong Ocean-Atmosphere interactions in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean and in the Northern Part of Tropical Indian Ocean
The prevailed surface Westerly wind pushed warm surface water from topical Pacific Ocean towards western Indian Ocean. This warm surface water spread around western equatorial Indian Ocean coupled with significant warming developed over western Indian Ocean on 18-21 December enhanced more convection along the coastal regions
Summary
Floods are the most devastating hazards that have potential to cause damage to natural environment, displacement of people, destruction of infrastructure: buildings, roads, railways, bridges and power transmission lines [1]-[6]. The severity of flood impacts depends on a number of factors such as geographic location, topography, soil types of the area, increased human settlements and economic assets in floodplains, and reduction of the natural water retention by increased land use change [7] [8]. Due to population growth, rapid urbanization and climate change, the frequency and intensity of flood events have increased in different regions of the world. These events have posed major humanitarian concern and threaten the efforts of achieving sustainable development and the Millennium Development Goals [9] [10] [11] [12]. Adaptation is a key and only strategy to reduce the impacts of flood events
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