Assessment of smallholders’ vulnerability to drought based on household-scale planting strategies and adaptability: A survey study of Xinghe County

Abstract

The increase of the frequency, scope and intensity of drought has a great impact on agricultural production under the climate change. Smallholders are the most direct victims of drought. This paper focused on smallholders' planting strategies and family-scale indicators from the micro perspective and constructed a framework for smallholders' drought vulnerability assessment in semiarid rain-fed agricultural areas. The results show that: (1) There are significant spatial variations in smallholders' drought adaptability and the affected by drought, which may be related to the fragmentation of smallholders' cultivated land in different regions. (2) The drought vulnerability of smallholders also has obvious differences between north and south in Xinghe County. There are several obvious vulnerability hot spots in the south, especially in Datong Yao and Dianzi. The vulnerability index of smallholders in these spots may more than 0.7. (3) The effective irrigation area may be the best factor to explain the spatial variations of smallholders' drought vulnerability. Its interaction with slope can explain more than 20% of the vulnerability difference, which is significant at 0.05 level. This study is expected to enrich the evaluation dimensions of smallholders’ drought vulnerability assessment in arid and semiarid areas, reduce the risk of drought losses of smallholders, and improve the level of regional risk governance.