Assessment of simulation predictions of hydrocarbon pool fire tests.

Abstract

An uncertainty quantification (UQ) analysis is performed on the fuel regression rate model within SIERRA/Fuego by comparing to a series of hydrocarbon tests performed in the Thermal Test Complex. The fuels used for comparison for the fuel regression rate model include methanol, ethanol, JP8, and heptane. The recently implemented flamelet combustion model is also assessed with a limited comparison to data involving measurements of temperature and relative mole fractions within a 2-m diameter methanol pool fire. The comparison of the current fuel regression rate model to data without UQ indicates that the model over predicts the fuel regression rate by 65% for methanol, 63% for ethanol, 95% for JP8, and 15% for heptane. If a UQ analysis is performed incorporating a range of values for transmittance, reflectance, and heat flux at the surface the current model predicts fuel regression rates within 50% of measured values. An alternative model which uses specific heats at inlet and boiling temperatures respectively and does not approximate the sensible heat is also compared to data. The alternative model with UQ significantly improves the comparison to within 25% for all fuels except heptane. Even though the proposed alternative model provides better agreement to data, particularly formore » JP8 and ethanol (within 15%), there are still outstanding issues regarding significant uncertainties which include heat flux gauge measurement and placement, boiling at the fuel surface, large scale convective motion within the liquid, and semi-transparent behavior.« less