Abstract
AbstractWater resources planning and management by water utilities have traditionally been based on consideration of water availability. However, the reliability of public water supplies can also be influenced by the quality of water bodies. In this study, we proposed a framework that integrates the analysis of risks of inadequate water quality and risks of insufficient water availability. We have developed a coupled modeling system that combines hydrological modeling of river water quantity and quality, rules for water withdrawals from rivers into storage reservoirs, and dynamical simulation of harmful algal blooms in storage reservoirs. We use this framework to assess the impact of climate change, demand growth, and land‐use change on the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method is tested on the River Thames catchment in the south of England. The results show that alongside the well‐known risks of rising water demand in the south of England and uncertain impacts of climate change, diffuse pollution from agriculture and effluent from upstream waste water treatment works potentially represent a threat to the reliability of public water supplies in London. We quantify the steps that could be taken to ameliorate these threats, though even a vigorous pollution‐prevention strategy would not be sufficient to offset the projected effects of climate change on water quality and the reliability of public water supplies. The proposed method can help water utilities to recognize their system vulnerability and evaluate the potential solutions to achieve more reliable water supplies.
Highlights
The reliability of public water supplies depends upon water availability and upon its quality
It can be observed that climate change is expected to reduce summer flows and the suspended sediment concentration, an increase in suspended sediment concentration is predicted to occur in some scenarios of the far future due to an increase in extreme winter floods
Water resources managers have made decisions primarily based on the availability of water, though they have recognized the risk that harmful water quality poses to public water supplies
Summary
The reliability of public water supplies depends upon water availability and upon its quality. Paredes‐Arquiola et al (2010) examined both water quality and quantity in a river basin and investigated how water quality in the river may change if the water allocations or reservoirs operation change They tested alternative future plans, such as the upgrading of wastewater treatment plants in the basin. Azevedo et al (2000) developed a stochastic model for integration of water quality‐quantity models and tested six management options formed by various reservoir operation rules and levels of wastewater treatment. All these studies were carried out using historical data. The other five WRZs supply water to 2.1 million people, and their source is mainly from groundwater, which is supported by surface water abstractions and storages in the upper River Thames (Thames Water, 2014a)
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