Assessment of risks in new technologies: some empirical evidence from India

Abstract

New technology commercialisation decisions assume vital significance in the present competitive corporate world. They create technology leaders, provide inherent strength for growth and to face the onslaught of competition. Obsolescence of existing technology and the threat of going out of business are coped with by keeping pace with technological developments and adoption thereof. Decisions on commercialisation of new technologies and the degree of success are dependent on a number of endogenous as well as exogenous factors, including assessment and abatement of new technology risks. Technologies during their infancy and developmental stages are characterised by unexplored scientific engineering and commercial aspects. The unexplored and unknown aspects bring in associated uncertainties and risks in terms of technology, market and financial aspects. The risk assessment and management practices of Indian industry, viz, four major stakeholder groups (industrial firms, technology institutions, financial institutions and policy makers/facilitating agencies), are studied by the authors in a research mode. The purposive stratified sample has 480 respondents and 376 new technologies commercialised by industrial firms of the study sample during 1985-1996 (performance data taken up to 1999). The findings of the empirical study are presented preceded by a preview of the subject matter.