Assessment of renewable energy transition in Moroccan electricity sector using a system dynamics approach

Abstract

AbstractMorocco is one of the major importers of conventional fuels in the MENA region. In fact, ensuring energy security in the western kingdom is placing a heavy burden on economic balances, while generating many environmental impacts and social discrepancies. The local government has been striving to reduce its GHG emissions coming mainly from activities related to the field of energy harvesting. The current research work aims to evaluate technical, economic, social, and environmental impacts of the ongoing transition toward renewable energy (RE) deployment in Morocco. We used the system dynamics approach in order to study different interactions of the components of the Moroccan electricity sector and their behaviors on this complex system under various scenarios. The results showed that 35 MtCO2 of avoided emissions can be ensured up to 2030 if renewable installed capacity reaches 15.72 GW by the same year. On the other hand, demand is estimated to be reduced by almost 30 TWh if robust measures were taken turning the country into an electricity exporter of up to 8.67 TWh by 2030. Finally, while research and development activities are expected to decrease RE plants construction costs by almost 700 million USD, nearly 448.986 renewable jobs can be created by 2030.