Assessment of Renewable Energy Expansion in the Java-Bali Islands, Indonesia

Abstract

Many developing countries face a dilemma between meeting the intensive growth in electricity demand, broadening an electricity access, as well as tackling climate change. The use of renewable energy is considered as an option for meeting both electrification and climate change objectives. In this study, long-term forecasting of electricity supply for the Java-Bali power system – the main power system in Indonesia – is presented. The forecasts take into consideration the Indonesian government policy of increasing the share of new and renewable energy in the national energy mix up to 23% by 2025 and 30% by 2050. After a systematic review of energy system models, we perform the analysis of the Java-Bali power system expansion using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model. Three scenarios are developed over the planning horizon (2016-2050) including the business as usual scenario (BAU), the renewable energy scenario (REN) and the optimization scenario (OPT). The results of the three scenarios are analyzed in terms of the changes in resource/technology deployment, CO2 emissions and total costs.