Assessment of red tide risk by integrating CRITIC weight method, TOPSIS-ASSETS method, and Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract

This study proposes a red tide risk assessment method based on intercriteria correlation (CRITIC), technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS), assessment of estuarine trophic status (ASSETS) methods and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) to calculate the probability of each risk level. The integrated TOPSIS-ASSETS method is used to calculate the risk levels of each year, where index weight is determined by CRITIC method. MCS method is employed to calculate the probability of each risk level. The results showed that level III to level V indicates high possibility of red tides in the case study area (Tolo Harbor). The highest risk rating was level V in 1988. The change of the risk level of red tide is consistent with the real situation of the occurrence of red tide. Another case of the east part of Skagerrak Strait shows that the results of this method are consistent with field situation. When there is an error between the evaluation results and the real situation, MCS can further suggest the probability of error in the evaluation results. Meanwhile, sensitivity analysis was used to test the performance of the evaluation model and two comparative methods. The results show that the proposed risk assessment method has better performance than other methods and can provide an effective risk evaluation for red tide management.