Assessment of Rainfall–Runoff Due to the Impacts of Land-Use Changes by Integrated Geospatial Empirical Approach: Study on Koraiyar Basin, Tiruchirappalli City, India

Abstract

The changes that occur in various forms of land classes are known as land-use and land-cover changes (LULC). Such changes have a substantial impact on the contours of an urban basin and consequently have an effect on the surface runoff of the rainfall that occurs in the area. The runoff features obviously deteriorate because of the decrease in initial abstraction, and an increase in imperviousness causes enhanced runoff. The particular challenges in the urban basin are specificity calculation and quantification of surface runoff. Geospatial techniques are adopted along with the Soil Conservation Service-curve number (SCS-CN) technique to reliably predict and accurately measure runoff. The GIS is used to prepare the transformed layers of land classes from remotely sensed data. In this explorative study, LULC change and its impact on the urban Koraiyar basin, Tiruchirappalli city, South India, is studied by using SCS-CN with the aid of GIS techniques. As the basin that passes is located in a developing city, rapid changes in LULC are observed in and around the periphery of the basin. The LULC changes and their impact on surface runoff are analyzed using GIS with multi-dated Landsat satellite images for the years 1986–2016 at intervals of every 10 years. The supervised classification algorithm is used to develop LULC maps. From the study, it is observed that there is a continuous increase in settlement area of 1.04% from 1986 to 2016, especially in the northern part of the basin. A Markov model analysis is done from the historically developed LULC maps to predict the anticipated future LULC changes for the years 2026 and 2036 along with an estimation of the surface runoff. The predicted maps show that there is likely to be an increase in settlement area of 1.04% and decrease in 12.29% of agricultural land. The various thematic layers like slope, soil and curve number (CN) maps are also prepared using GIS. The composite CNs are generated for various land classes in the basin from 1986 to 2036. The increase in CN from 72 to 74.76 and their influence on runoff are studied. Finally, the study attempts to reliably estimate the present and future LULC status and its effect on surface runoff in the Koraiyar river basin.