Abstract
Climate change and variability are likely to increase in most parts of the world, leading to more extreme events, which may increase the stress on already threatened water resources. This study focuses on the effects of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the rainfall of Pucara basin and in the groundwater levels of the Punata alluvial fan in the Bolivian sub-Andes. Climate change and variability were assessed using the Quantile Perturbation Method, by detecting anomalous temporal changes in extreme quantiles of annual precipitation in the Pucara watershed and the correlation with groundwater levels in the Punata fan. The results show oscillatory behavior over periods of 28 to 33 years for the occurrence of wet and dry extremes at all studied meteorological stations. This suggests a similar oscillatory behavior of the groundwater levels; however, longer groundwater level observations are needed in order to confirm the link between precipitation variability and groundwater fluctuations. Local actors such as water managers, farmers and decision makers must take into consideration this climate variability in order to plan for these multi-decadal variations in response to the changes.
Highlights
IntroductionAdequate management of land and water resources is necessary for improving welfare in rural regions, which becomes more evident in arid and semiarid regions due to restrictions to water access
Adequate management of land and water resources is necessary for improving welfare in rural regions, which becomes more evident in arid and semiarid regions due to restrictions to water access.In these regions, surface water and groundwater are critical constituents of the hydrogeological cycle.In many parts of the world, irrigation and drinking water originates from groundwater, and it can act as a buffer during dry seasons or periods [1]
Two strong events of El Niño are indicated by arrows
Summary
Adequate management of land and water resources is necessary for improving welfare in rural regions, which becomes more evident in arid and semiarid regions due to restrictions to water access In these regions, surface water and groundwater are critical constituents of the hydrogeological cycle. In many parts of the world, irrigation and drinking water originates from groundwater, and it can act as a buffer during dry seasons or periods [1] In these regions, high inter-annually rainfall variability is observed, which may affect the supply of surface water leading to scarcity [2,3], and low rainfall may limit the natural recharge of aquifers. In order to plan for more sustainable management of groundwater, detailed information on hydrogeological and meteorological characteristics is needed
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