Abstract
Economic growth and the rising demand for mobility in developing countries are leading to increased car ownership, with associated environmental problems. To develop appropriate policies to cope with this situation, reliable forecasts are needed of the stock of vehicles and its environmental impacts. This paper looks at the potential for car ownership increase in China’s 31 provinces and considers its likely effect on atmospheric pollution (notably, CO 2, CH 4, CO, NMVOC, NO x and SO 2) up to 2020. The effects will continue to be spatially variable with a heavy concentration of car use and pollution in urban areas. At the meso level, the South and North Coast regions will have the highest levels of vehicle ownership and will be the most adversely affected by environmental damage.
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