Assessment of potato response to climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract

Abstract This study was conducted to simulate the climate change impacts on potato production and evaluate the planting date and variety management as possible climate change adaptation strategies in Isfahan province, Iran. Two types of General Circulation Models (HadCM3 and IPCM4) and three scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) were employed. Daily climatic parameters were generated by Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS − WG). The SUBSTOR-Potato model was used to simulate the baseline and future potato growth and development. Results indicated that LARS-WG and SUBSTOR-Potato had an appropriate accuracy to simulate climatic and growth parameters of potato. Simulated results showed that the maximum leaf area index (LAI), days to tuber initiation (DTTI), days to harvest (DTH) and fresh tuber yield of evaluated variety will be declined as affected by future climate change. Based on the simulation results, delayed planting date (31 May) would increase tuber yield under future climatic conditions. In the contrary, early planting (30 April) would accelerate harmful effects of climate change on potato yield. The medium and early maturing varieties showed a better tuber yield under climate change conditions than common (delayed maturing) variety. In essence, early maturing variety and delayed planting date are reported as the most efficient agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful effects of climate change and proposed to be considered in designing and managing potato ecosystems of the region for future climatic conditions. Generally, our results highlight the importance of considering early maturing variety and delayed planting date as the efficient agronomical approaches for mitigating harmful effects of climate change on potato production.