Assessment of Past and Future Land Use/Land Cover Dynamics of the Old Kumasi Metropolitan Assembly and Atwima Nwabiagya Municipal Area, Ghana

Abstract

Ghana like all countries in Sub-Saharan region of Africa have long been undergoing intense land use land cover changes (LULCC) which have given rise to extensive forest loss (deforestation and degradation), loss of arable land and land degradation. This study assessed the past LULCC in the Atwima Nwabiagya which contains the Barekese and Owabi Headworks) and the old Kumasi Local Assemblies’ areas in Ghana and projected the scenario in 2040 for business-as-usual (BAU). The synergies of satellite imagery of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020 were classified with an overall accuracy of 90%. Markov Cellular-Automata method was used to forecast the future LULC pattern after detecting main driving forces of LULCC. The findings showed an extensive increase in built up areas from 11% in 1990 to 39% in 2020 owing largely to 23% decrease in forest cover and 6% decrease in agricultural lands within the past 30 years (1990-2020). The projected LULC under the BAU scenario for 2040 showed built-up surge from 39% to 45% indicating additional forest loss from 43% in 2020 to 40% and decreasing agricultural land from 17% to 14%. The main driver for the LULCC is clearly anthropogenic driven as the human population in the study area keeps rising every censual year. This study exemplifies the fast-tracked forest loss, loss of arable land and challenges on ecosystem sustainability of the Barekese-Owabi-Kumasi landscape. The current and projected maps necessitate the apt implementation of suitable interventions such as reforestation, protection measures and policy decision in deliberate land use planning to mitigate further loss of forest cover and safeguard the Barekese and Owabi headworks.