Assessment of Nationally Determined Contributions of Sri Lankan Power Sector

Abstract

The nationally determined contributions (NDCs) aim to attend long-term temperature goals, which have been imposed by the Paris agreement to strengthen climate change efforts. Fossil fuel is the major energy source in power generation in Sri Lanka, contributing 67% of total input energies. Sri Lanka is intended to achieve 70% renewable energy in the power sector by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector by 2050 through its NDCs. This study analysed the NDCs in the Sri Lankan power sector. The study was carried out through Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/End-use), a recursive dynamic least-cost optimisation framework based on bottom-up modelling principles. The Sri Lankan Power sector has been categorised into a few sectors based on the fuels used in power generation. It mainly considers thermal coal, thermal oil, and hydro. It will also consider all the existing power generation technologies, committed technologies and technologies identified as candidates. A business-as-usual scenario (BAU) and three alternatives NDC were considered in this study. These NDCs include enhancing renewable energy by adding 3867 MW, converting existing fuel oil-based combined cycle power plants to natural gas and establishing new natural gas plants, and improving the efficiency of transmission and distribution network (lost reduction 0.5% compared with BAU by 2030). The study analysed the output data and confirmed the feasibility of meeting GHG emission reduction targets through consideration of selected NDCs in the time span of 2020-2030. The GHG emissions from the BAU scenario and three countermeasure scenarios were analysed in 2015-2050. The input primary energy supply was determined to compare the variation in energy with the effect of NDCs. KEYWORDS: Power Sector, Nationally Determined Contributions, Sri Lanka, AIM/Enduse, CO2 Mitigation.