Assessment of meteorological parameters in predicting seasonal temperature of Dhaka city using ANN

Abstract

In this study, an attempt has been made to investigate the possibility of a machine learning model, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for seasonal prediction of the temperature of Dhaka city. Prior knowledge of temperature is essential, especially in tropical regions like Dhaka, as it aids in forecasting heatwaves and implementing effective preparedness schemes. While various machine learning models have been employed for the prediction of hot weather across the world, research specially focused on Bangladesh is limited. Additionally, the application of machine learning models needs to be curated to suit the particular weather features of any region. Therefore, this study approaches ANN method for prediction of the temperature of Dhaka exploring the underlying role of related weather variables. Using the daily data for the months of February to July collected from the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis data (0.25° × 0.25° global grid) for the years 2011–2020, this study focuses on finding the combination of weather variables in predicting temperatures. The densely populated city, Dhaka, has faced severe consequences due to extreme climate conditions in recent years, and this study will pave a new dimension for further research regarding the topic.