Assessment of meteorological drought and trend detection in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan

Abstract

The intensity and frequency of drought events are increased in the last five decades in South Asia, particularly Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, India, and Bangladesh. The severe drought of 2000 affected central and southern Pakistan and India. The recent severe droughts of 1997–2002 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa caused scarcity in water and led to negative agriculture growth. In this paper, assessment of meteorological drought and trend detection was carried out using 43-year (1975–2017) monthly rainfall data for all 14 meteorological stations. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) developed by McKee et al. (1993) is used for drought assessment and trend detection. The results of SPI are carried out in all four regions of the province, i.e., northern part, eastern part, central part, and southern part, in 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months returned period (MRP). The study has revealed negative trend of SPI values in eastern part, while central and southern parts of the province have positive trend. The highest frequency of drought is analyzed in 6 MPR, 9 MRP, 12 MRP, and 24 MRP in northern parts. The analysis also revealed the topmost frequency of extreme droughts in central and northern parts, i.e., in 3 MRP at Drosh met station and in 6 MPR, 9 MRP, 12 MRP, and 24 MRP at Cherat met station. By the application of this methodology, the province can develop strategies for timely response, adaptation, and mitigation of the existence of different drought characteristics.