Assessment of IRI2020 model accuracy in predicting ionospheric parameters: Insights from multiple ionosonde stations

Abstract

This research assesses the performance of the IRI2020 model in forecasting the ionospheric critical frequency of the F2 layer (foF2) and Maximum Usable Frequency (MUF) of the ionosphere from 2020 to 2023 across multiple ionosonde stations. The primary objective is to analyse the characteristics of foF2 and MUF across various longitudinal sectors during the solar minimum to ascending phase of solar cycle 25 and to evaluate the IRI2020 model’s performance in replicating observed data. Additionally, the study explores the influence of various space weather parameters on the variability of these ionospheric parameters. The findings reveal that the IRI2020 model overestimates the daily mean values of both foF2 and MUF(3000)F2 across the stations over the three years. While exhibiting good performance in capturing the pattern of hourly predictions, the model tends to overestimate foF2 more than MUF(3000)F2, with better predictions observed for MUF(3000)F2. However, hourly estimations display a mix of underestimation and overestimation, predominantly overestimating values. Correlations ranged from 0.58 to 0.92 for foF2 and 0.72 to 0.91 for MUF(3000)F2, showing variability across stations. As solar activity increases, seasonal variations become more evident, especially in stations located in the northern hemisphere.In contrast, stations in the southern hemisphere exhibit less pronounced seasonal variations, suggesting a notable hemispheric asymmetry. Although the IRI2020 better captured the general trend of foF2 and MUF(3000)F2 in our investigation, the percentage deviation for MUF(3000)F2 ranges from 1 % to 15.1 %, which can result in a significant range reduction for practical applications like HF communications. Stations closer to the geomagnetic equatorial line exhibit stronger seasonal asymmetry and higher deviations. Some key space weather parameters, including sunspot number R, F10.7 and R/F10.7 ratio, were found to significantly influence ionospheric variability, with sunspot number R and R/F10.7 showing a stronger correlation with foF2 and MUF(3000)F2. These suggest that the variability of the solar active region parameters primarily controls ionospheric foF2 and MUF(3000)F2.