Abstract
Abstract This case study presents an assessment of the efficiency and risk of the vehicle fleet renewal in the public transport company. The investment project is solved in two alternatives. The first alternative consists of vehicle replacement by only electric buses. In the second alternative, a combination of electric buses and CNG buses is considered. Assessment of the economic efficiency of the investment project is based on the net present value (NPV). Due to lower initial and ongoing capital expenditures, the second alternative is more cost-effective than the first one although the profitability of the investment project is low. Within risk assessment, sensitivity analysis points out the subsidy and personal costs as the risk factors influencing variance of NPV the most. Finally, the effectiveness of the investment project is assessed at different levels of the use of financial support from EU funds and the state budget. In that case, even a low level of financial support significantly increased the profitability of the project.
Highlights
The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050
Krawiec [9] emphasizes the need for correct formulation and description of the process of conversion of the public transport fleet and recommends the use of methods such as identification model based on statistical methods, optimization model based on multi-criteria optimization methodology, interaction model based on discrete Markov chain methods and economic models, allowing a realistic consideration of the proposed solution based on simulation methods
The economic evaluation is based on the total cost of ownership (TCO) and risk consideration is through sensitivity analysis
Summary
The EU aims to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. The European Green Deal supports, among other measures, In the professional literature, several authors [6,7] address the issue of introducing low-emission vehicles into public transport for reasons of improving air quality in the city, reducing noise pollution, and subsequent passenger satisfaction. The authors [8] present the compilation of a fleet electrification plan in a cost-effective way, taking into account investment costs (IC), operating costs, and investments in charging infrastructure. This problem is modelled as an integer linear problem. Several authors focus on technical and economic evaluation and mutual comparison of variants of bus fleet renewal in public transport in order to increase its environmental friendliness. This problem is solved in different ways. Topić et al [12] have developed a simulation tool for bus electrification planning, which allows one to calculate the optimal type and number of electric buses, charging stations and to predict TCO, including ICs and operating costs
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