Assessment of intensity of seasonal influenza activity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, 2019-2021

Abstract

Objective: To explore the feasibility of moving epidemic method (MEM) in the assessment of seasonal influenza (influenza) activity intensity from the perspective of urban agglomeration, assess influenza activity intensity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019 to 2021 and evaluate the reliability of surveillance data and the effectiveness of the MEM model application. Methods: The weekly reported incidence rate (IR) of influenza and the percentage of influenza-like illness (ILI%) from 2011-2021 in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region were collected to establish MEM models respectively. The model fitting effect and the reliability of the two data were evaluated for the purpose of establishing an optimal model to assess the influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2019-2021. A cross-validation procedure was used to evaluate the performance of the models by calculating the Youden's index, sensitivity and specificity. Results: The MEM model fitted with weekly ILI% had a higher Youden's index compared with the model fitted with weekly IR at both Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region level and provincial level. The MEM model based on ILI% showed that the epidemic threshold in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region during 2019-2020 was 4.42%, the post-epidemic threshold was 4.66%, with medium, high and very high intensity thresholds as 5.38%, 7.22% and 7.84%, respectively. The influenza season during 2019-2020 had 10 weeks (week 50 of 2019 to week 7 of 2020). The influenza season started in week 50 of 2019, and the intensity fluctuated above and below medium epidemic level for six consecutive weeks. The high intensity was observed in week 4 of 2020, the threshold of very high intensity was excessed in week 5, and the intensity gradually declined and became lower than the threshold at the end of the influenza season in week 8. The epidemic threshold was 4.29% and the post-epidemic threshold was 4.35% during 2020-2021. Influenza activity level never excessed the epidemic threshold throughout the year, and no epidemic period emerged. Conclusions: The MEM model could be applied in the assessment of influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and the use of ILI% to assess influenza activity intensity in this region was more reliable than IR data. Influenza activity intensity in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region was higher during 2019-2020 but significantly lower in 2020-2021.