Assessment of indices of temperature extremes simulated by multiple CMIP5 models over China

Abstract

Given that climate extremes in China might have serious regional and global consequences, an increasing number of studies are examining temperature extremes in China using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) models. This paper investigates recent changes in temperature extremes in China using 25 state-of-the-art global climate models participating in CMIP5. Thirteen indices that represent extreme temperature events were chosen and derived by daily maximum and minimum temperatures, including those representing the intensity (absolute indices and threshold indices), duration (duration indices), and frequency (percentile indices) of extreme temperature. The overall performance of each model is summarized by a “portrait” diagram based on relative root-mean-square error, which is the RMSE relative to the median RMSE of all models, revealing the multi-model ensemble simulation to be better than individual model for most indices. Compared with observations, the models are able to capture the main features of the spatial distribution of extreme temperature during 1986–2005. Overall, the CMIP5 models are able to depict the observed indices well, and the spatial structure of the ensemble result is better for threshold indices than frequency indices. The spread amongst the CMIP5 models in different subregions for intensity indices is small and the median CMIP5 is close to observations; however, for the duration and frequency indices there can be wide disagreement regarding the change between models and observations in some regions. The model ensemble also performs well in reproducing the observational trend of temperature extremes. All absolute indices increase over China during 1961–2005.