Assessment of Impacts of Climate Change on Hydropower-Dominated Power System—The Case of Ethiopia

Tewodros Walle Mekonnen,Gabrial Anandarajah,Fitsum Salehu Kebede,Solomon Tesfamariam Teferi

doi:10.3390/app12041954

Tewodros Walle Mekonnen, Gabrial Anandarajah + Show 2 more

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https://doi.org/10.3390/app12041954

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Abstract

The Ethiopia energy mix is dominated by hydro-generation, which is largely reliant on water resources and their availability. This article aims to examine the impacts of severe drought on electric power generation by developing a Drought Scenario. OSeMOSYS (an open source energy modelling tool) was used to perform the analyses. The results were then compared with an existing reference scenario called “New Policy Scenario”. The study looked at how power generation and CO2 emissions would be altered in the future if reservoir capacity was halved due to drought. Taking this into account, the renewable energy share decreased from its 90% in 2050 to 81% in 2065, which had been 98% to 89% in the case of New Policy Scenario. In another case, CO2 emissions also increased from 0.42 Mt CO2 in 2015 to 7.3 Mt CO2 in 2065, a 3.3 Mt CO2 increase as compared to the New Scenario. The results showed how a prolonged period of drought would reduce the river flows and lead to an energy transition that may necessitate the installation of other concurrent alternative power plants. The study suggested ways to approach energy mix, particularly for countries with hydro-dominated power generation and those experiencing drought.

Highlights

DehghanisanijOne of the four pillars of the Ethiopian Climate Resilience Green Economy (CRGE)initiative was to increase electricity generation from renewable energy sources for local and regional markets [1]
As per the second National Electrification Program (NEP-2), by 2025, grid solutions are expected to account for 65% of access provision while off-grid technology is expected to cover the remaining 35% [2]
Ethiopia has abundant water resources with a capacity to generate over 45,000 Mega Watts (MW) [3]

Summary

Introduction

DehghanisanijOne of the four pillars of the Ethiopian Climate Resilience Green Economy (CRGE)initiative was to increase electricity generation from renewable energy sources for local and regional markets [1]. The Government’s investments have positioned the country well to become a power hub for their East African neighbours, in harmony with the nation’s resilience to climate change and its reputation for being a green economy front-runner, with the hydro Gibe-III Hydropower (1870 MW) and other well-advanced large-scale hydropower projects, most notably, the 5000 MW Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is more than halfway through construction [2]. With increasing load demand, the Ethiopian power system has faced more frequent, widely spread and long lasting blackouts [9]. Alongside this initiative, the government is committed to limiting the country’s 2030 GHG emissions to today’s 150 Mt CO2 [10]. The emission is mainly due to the traditional and unsustainable ways of utilizing natural resources [11]

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