Abstract
AbstractAerial photography and satellite imagery of the Petersen ice shelf, Nunavut, Canada, from 1959 to 2012 show that it was stable until June 2005, after which a series of major calving events in the summers of 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2012 resulted in the loss of ∼61% of the June 2005 ice-shelf area. This recent series of calving events was initiated by the loss of extensive regions of ˃50-year-old multi-year landfast sea ice from the front of the ice shelf in summer 2005. Each subsequent calving event has been preceded by open-water conditions and resulting loss of pack-ice pressure across the front of the ice shelf, and most occurred during record warm summers. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) ice thickness measurements and RADARSAT-2 derived observations of surface motion indicate that tributary glaciers provided total ice input of 1.19-5.65 Mta–1 to the ice shelf from 2011 to 2012, far below the mean surface loss rate of 28.45 Mta–1. With recent losses due to calving and little evidence for current basal freeze-on, this suggests that the Petersen ice shelf will no longer exist by the 2040s, or sooner if further major calving events occur.
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